The Most Unpredictable Oscars

Longtime readers might remember that in the past I've done some predicting of Oscar winners. This year I managed to see all eight of the Best Picture nominees and while I've said many times before that it's kinda silly to award a "best" picture, this year I'm having a really hard time figuring out which one I think will win. And I don't think I'm alone. Entertainment Weekly had six anonymous industry experts make their predictions/pick their favorites, and all six chose a different winner for Best Picture.

But still...

Best Picture (in the order in which I saw them):

Green Book - When I saw this movie, I really liked it. Then I read more about it and now I'm just not so sure. In fact, there are a few of these "based on true events" nominees that I wish I had never found out just how much dramatic license (or lack thereof) is taken. I love me some Viggo Mortensen, but this is no Blouse Man (shout out to my HOM girls). But Mahershala Ali is pretty fantastic, as he is in pretty much everything.

BlacKkKlansman - The premise of this film falls under "you couldn't possibly make it up so it must be true." I've never watched "Ballers," so I haven't seen John David Washington but damn, if I closed my eyes, I'd swear it was Denzel. It seems weird to say that I really enjoyed this movie, given the subject matter, but I did like it, and I'm glad to see Spike Lee back in the mix.

Bohemian Rhapsody - Queen's music is part of the soundtrack of my life. I really did love this movie for the entertainment, but as a biopic it felt pretty sanitized and safe. I mean, I'll probably watch it again. I just don't know that it's a "Best Picture."

Vice - Christian Bale is good, no doubt. This movie just did not knock my socks off.

Black Panther - I did not get to see this in the theater, and I wish I had because visually, it's stunning. I'm also not a comics/superhero aficionado but I enjoyed this movie, especially the strong female characters.

Roma - Black and white, in Spanish with subtitles, not much action. But it's a beautiful film.

The Favourite - Spectacular costumes and fantastic acting. I know a lot of critics love this movie. I didn't hate it, but it felt like it was longer than it actually was and I totally get why it's nominated, but I'm probably not voting for it.

A Star is Born - This movie made me ugly cry. I loved it a lot. I think Bradley Cooper should have at least been nominated for best director. If Shallow doesn't win for original song there's something wrong, especially because that's probably the only award the film will win.


My picks:

Picture: I would vote for A Star is Born, but I think Roma will win.
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, though I'd love to see Spike Lee win.
Actor: Rami Malek will win. I would vote for Bradley Cooper (and if the Academy wants to reward him for the directing snub, they might vote for him too).
Actress: Glenn Close. Hers is the only movie in this category that I didn't see. My vote would probably go to Melissa McCarthy.
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, but Richard E. Grant was pretty great.
Supporting Actress: Regina King. I also haven't seen her movie (damn streaming platforms) but I love her and she seems like a shoo in. The Favourite ladies were both fantastic but they'll probably split the vote.

As in prior years, we also watched the shorts so my predictions for those are:

Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence.
Live Action Short: Skin

Oscar Hangover

Remember that time I said I'd post my Oscar predictions? Yeah, that never happened and by now hardly anyone cares about the Oscars anymore but I'm going to post about them anyway.


ANIMATED SHORTS

I only saw 3 of the 5 nominees, but my favorite was Piper (the winner) about a baby sandpiper. It's adorable and fun, which I needed because I watched these immediately following...


DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

Good God, these were devastating, but so worth it. I recommend watching all of them.

• Joe's Violin - a 91-year-old Holocaust survivor donates his violin to a New York City instrument drive and forms a lovely friendship with the 12-year-old girl who ends up playing it.
  
• Extremis - deals with end-of-life decisions by focusing primarily on two families and their doctors.
  
• 4.1 Miles - a Greek coast guard captain pulls desperate refugees crossing from Turkey.
  
• Watani: My Homeland - follows a family living in Aleppo who migrate to Germany after the father is taken by ISIS. Watching the kids acclimate to their new surroundings is fascinating.
  
• The White Helmets - are volunteer rescue workers in Syria who, after bombings, rush to save people trapped in the rubble. This group has saved more than 80,000 people.

I was pretty sure The White Helmets would win (and it did) but my heart was with Joe's Violin.

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

These were all foreign with subtitles. I enjoyed all of them. My favorite was Sing, which takes place in a Hungarian elementary school in which a new girl joins the choir but is then told to just mouth the words because the director wants only to win a national prize. The students eventually perform an act of rebellion that I didn't see coming, and it's brilliant.

I thought, however, that the winner would be Ennemis Interieurs, an interrogation between a French official and an Algerian man who has lived in France his whole life and finally wants to become a citizen. I should have gone with my heart on this one because Sing was the winner.


AND THE REST

Supporting Actor
I was certain Mahershala Ali would win, but if Dev Patel had pulled off the upset I wouldn't have minded.

Supporting Actress
All of these actresses were superb, but this was Viola's time and damn, can that woman give an acceptance speech.

Lead Actor
I voted for Denzel but Casey Affleck's performance was definitely worthy. I struggle with the off-camera controversy surrounding Affleck's win. I mean, I'm probably not going to have a beer with the guy, but he acted his face off in Manchester.

Lead Actress
Viola Davis easily could have been in this category. I'm sad that Taraji P. Henson was not nominated, and I absolutely think that Amy Adams should have been nominated for Arrival, but Emma Stone's movie was the only one in this group that I saw, so I can't really say who should have been left off the list.

In our Oscar pool, I chose Moonlight for both Director and Best Picture, but I really thought that director might go to Moonlight and picture would go to La La Land. It went the other way, but I'm thrilled for Moonlight. It's such an amazing story and apparently it was made in 4 days and cost about $12. (Yes, I'm exaggerating.)

Having said that, and having seen all nine Best Picture nominees, and recognizing that giving an award called Best Picture is pretty ridiculous, here's how I would personally rank them if someone kidnapped my cats and the ransom was my list:

Moonlight
Lion
Hidden Figures
Fences
Arrival
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water (I'm honestly not sure why this was nominated, but Jeff Bridges was great)


For what it's worth, I predicted 14 of the 24 awards correctly (and won the pool at our party).


As for the show itself, other than being too long as always, I really enjoyed it. I thought Jimmy Kimmel did a great job. The Matt Damon stuff was hilarious ("2-time Academy Award winner Ben Affleck and guest"), and the winners gave some fantastic speeches, mostly without notes. Fashion-wise, I thought there were very few clunkers (but Dakota Johnson, WTF?).

After watching the show to the end, we rewound it to the start of Best Picture. How freaking crazy was that?! Something tells me that Pricewaterhouse Coopers might lose the Oscars gig.

Oscars Running Commentary

Oscar night is one of my favorite nights of the year. Last night we had a few friends over for the occasion. Our cast of characters included Aaron and me, and our neighbors Colin & Amy, Dru & Jeannie, and Michelle. Here's what happened:

Colin made Oscar-inspired snacks. Don't worry, that's powdered sugar!

We all love Ellen, but we're not loving this outfit. It's kinda looking like tuxedo overalls. Unfortunate.

Oh, June Squibb looks great. Stunning color.

"Barkhad Abdi is from Somalia, he's a sommelier... Who's the wine captain now?"

"With all the gowns ... Meryl Streep can't afford to be nominated anymore." Except that usually she looks like she grabbed something out of her closet. (To be fair, I thought Meryl looked great last night.)

What's in Jared Leto's crotch?

Here comes Anne Hathaway to present to Jared Leto. She looks lovely - black and bling. Can you imagine if he had NOT won?

OMG Jared's tribute to his mom (who is beautiful, BTW), so sweet... but you're gonna have to wrap it up now.

Pharrell is singing "Happy." Amy: "I've never heard this song in my life." The rest of us: "you heard it (and danced to it) at least 4 times Friday night."

Kim Novak - oh dear. Unfortunate look and incoherent.

Well done, Emma Watson and I agree with Twitterland: you and Joseph Gordon-Levitt would make a great couple!

Oh Zac Efron, figure out your teleprompter.

Kerry Washington totally wants pizza but I'm not buying that Calista Flockhart does.

I haven't seen 20 Feet From Stardom, and I'm not sorry it won, but Darlene Love, you're being such a diva.

While talking about Anna Kendrick... Me to Michelle: "what do you mean you've never seen Pitch Perfect?" Dru: "We might need to have a Gwentervention."

Thank you for the costume change, Ellen.

Selfie! I totally love that Lupita's brother got in on that. And just in case you haven't seen it:

What's on Michael B Jordan's collar? Kristen Bell looks fab. Can't wait for Veronica Mars.

Why can no one read their lines? And what's up with the camera work?

I loved all the supporting actress nominees but I was totally pulling for Lupita. She looks like a princess but I'm on the fence about the headband.

Pizza!

So obviously I should have picked Gravity for all the technical awards but I tried to spread the wealth.

Even without water or being suspended high above the crowd, Pink nails it (love the ruby red dress) but I wish she didn't need to take breaths in the middle of words.

Latest check of our ballots: I have 10 correct, Aaron has 11. Aaron says "Post THAT, bitch."

I'm sorry. I like Bette and she looks great, but I don't understand the point of having the song after the tribute. Waste. Of. Time. Aaron told me to start a Twitter campaign for them to abort the song.

John Travolta what the HELL did you just say? Did you not show up for rehearsal?

I just found out Taye and Idina are separated. That makes me sad.

Ellen's passing the hat.

Weird that no one gave me the memo about wearing a white sparkly dress... Can I not sit at the cool kids table? #Oscars
— Anna Kendrick (@AnnaKendrick47) March 3, 2014

No way, I loved Anna's dress, especially the back of it.

DDL! Aaron: "What did he win for?" Dru: "Whatever he was in."

Again, all of these actors were fantastic. Happy for Matt!

Our ballot leaders going into the final award - Dru 14, Aaron 14, Gwen 15. If Gravity wins, Aaron and I will tie.

And Gwen wins! I mean, 12 Years a Slave wins! And for what it's worth, I correctly predicted all of the Big Six awards.


Overall, I pretty much always love the show. And I adore Ellen, but there were some awkward moments and I blame the production for a lot of them.

My best dressed include Cate, Lupita (once she was holding that statue, the headband worked), Sandy, Gabourey Sidibe (loved that color) and my most favorite, Charlize. She just oozed Hollywood glamour.

Some of my worst dressed:

My best dressed men: Zac Efron, Matthew McConaughey (although I wasn't a fan of Camilla's dress), Jared Leto, Bradley Cooper and Brad Pitt.

And my best dressed couple, Channing Tatum and Jenna Dewan-Tatum:

That does it for this year!

Oscar Oscar Oscar!

This year I managed to see eight of the nine Best Picture nominees. The only one I haven't seen is Philomena, and there's still a little time, so I might sneak that in before Sunday night. I'm pleased to say that I didn't dislike any of the nominated films. Here are my thoughts and predictions:

Original, right?

American Hustle

This is the movie that Aaron and I saw first; unfortunately we kinda slept through some of it. We're planning to see it again Saturday afternoon.

Captain Phillips

Wow, was this an intense movie! If I didn't know it really happened I'd think it a ridiculous plot. Barkhad Abdi is so deserving of his nomination as Supporting Actor ("I'm the captain now," even though you've seen it in every commercial, is a terrifying line). His performance really makes you fear him yet feel sympathy for him at the same time. If Jared Leto weren't in the race I'd be pulling for this guy. Tom Hanks was robbed. His final scene alone is worthy of a nomination.

Dallas Buyers Club

The movie itself is quite good, but the performances are stellar. I'm a McConaughey fan but much of the time I just feel like I'm watching a version of himself onscreen. In this movie, I forgot I was watching Matthew McConaughey. Jared Leto's Rayon was heartbreaking.

Gravity

I didn't expect to like this one, but I really enjoyed it. I did not see it in 3D (it tends to make me queasy). Sandra Bullock was truly amazing, and she'd be my pick for Best Actress, but I haven't seen Judi Dench or likely winner Cate Blanchett.

Her

Another movie I didn't think I'd like; in fact, I might not have even gone to see it if my friend and fellow Oscar nut Michelle hadn't told me how good it was. Original and well-acted, I bet it will win the screenplay award.

Nebraska

I'm a fan of director Alexander Payne, and this was no exception. It's a simple movie and it's predictable, but the simplicity is its charm. Bruce Dern does an admirable job, but June Squibb steals the show. I would totally be rooting for her to win Supporting Actress were it not for Lupita Nyong'o.

Philomena

I'm bummed I haven't seen this yet. It won't win, but I will make certain to watch it at some point.

12 Years a Slave

This is such a powerful movie. As I mentioned above, I think Lupita Nyong'o should win. Her performance was devastating and Chiwetel Ejiofor was also incredible but I fear that this isn't his year.

The Wolf of Wall Street
I was entertained by this movie, and I like Leo (and love Jonah Hill), but I still feel it was too long.

Predictions

Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey
Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett (though I haven't seen Blue Jasmine, she seems like a sure bet)
Director: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity - I truly believed I was watching a movie filmed in outer space.

Best Picture:
As I said, I didn't dislike any of the movies I saw. I'm fascinated that six of the nine nominees are based on true stories, and the other three are so well done. Aaron's favorite was Gravity. My pick is 12 Years a Slave. I had a hard time figuring out why exactly I'm choosing it over the others, but I read this in Entertainment Weekly (from an anonymous screenwriter who also backs 12 Years):

"...choosing 12 Years validates the idea that the film should exist. Some of the performances are stronger than others; the script is strong in some places, not others. But these stories should not be marginalized, and it's a triumph it got made. The film needs to be in the world, and for all the years that it hasn't been, this is the best picture of the year."

Not my words, but I couldn't agree more.


For #backthatazzup Friday, I'm sharing one of the nominated songs. It probably won't win (Let It Go is the frontrunner) but it makes me, well, Happy.



Check back on Monday for my running commentary on the show. I adore Ellen Degeneres and can't wait to see how she does.

The Oscars: My 3 1/2 hour run-on sentence

Kidding! If you know me you know that it would drive me crazy to do that. But I did blog while watching. Some of this might not make sense but I just went with it.

----------------------------------------------------

"And the quest to make Tommy Lee Jones laugh begins now".... and it worked! I'm not sure I've ever heard Seth MacFarlane's real voice.

"Why couldn't they just get Tina and Amy to host?" Well, I think they should host someday but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Oo, I'm liking this dance with Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron, but spats? Really? (I know they're part of the costume but still.)

Joseph Gordon Levitt, you're not classically attractive but I really enjoy you.

"I've got a bottle of wine and some Boniva" - Sally Field, good for you!

Octavia Spencer looks lovely! I think supporting actor is the toughest call. I need to watch The Master because Phillip Seymour Hoffman is so good in everything. Yay, Christoph! Yay, Django! Quentin Tarantino, tighten your tie, dude. Good speech and not too long.

I love you, Melissa McCarthy but I'm not liking that hair or the color of your dress. Bummer. And this exchange with Paul Rudd isn't going that well. Every year Aaron and I say we want to see the animated and live action short films, and there's a theater in Columbus that shows them, but clearly we haven't gotten there. Yay, Brave! (That's the only one of the animated films that I saw, and I love me a heroine with curly red hair.) Love the kilt.

Reese Witherspoon looks gorgy, and bitch just had a baby. Someone got the wrong camera cue when they showed the cast of Silver Linings Playbook as she talked about Beasts of the Southern Wild.

I didn't see The Avengers but very fun to see all these guys. And who else but Samuel L. Jackson could pull off the velvet smoking jacket (but pick one, velvet jacket or silk shirt, not both). This cinematography dude has some serious hair and I love that he was all overwhelmed by winning. Clearly Life of Pi will win all the technical awards. Again, didn't see it but I'm sure that it was a boring visually spectacular film. Aaaaand, our first play off ... with the Jaws theme!

Jennifer Aniston, I love you and I love your dress. And I'm glad Channing lost the spats. I didn't see Anna Karenina but I figured it would win for costumes. Now, don't talk too long. She seems like she knows what she's doing and she's already done. Good job. Yay, Les Misérables for makeup and hair! OMG, that woman is wearing hot pink tights. And see? Two women still manage to give their speeches quickly.

I'd totally do Halle Berry. She's too beautiful. We really need to see Skyfall. Oo, Shirley Bassey! Appropriately wearing gold and looking and sounding good!

Kerry Washington looks stunning as always. I'm ready for some more acting awards please.

Every time I see Liam Neeson I'm sad about Natasha Richardson. I'm liking that they're showing three nominated films together.

"150 years and it's still too soon?" Apparently so.

Apparently we need to see Searching for Sugar Man.

And in one of the least surprising moments of the night, until DDL wins for lead actor, Amour wins foreign language film.

The orchestra isn't even in the building? What a rip off.

Salute to movie musicals!!! And this confirms that there's something wrong with the sound because the remote orchestra often drowns out CZJ. But here comes JHud. If they drown HER out, there's really something wrong. Yep. The balance is off. But damn, girlfriend, you rock the house! Standing O! Ah, Amanda Seyfried and Eddie Redmayne and their battling vibratos. Samantha Barks looks stunning, and she was a great Eponine.

OK, blah blah blah creative and technical awards.

Marky Mark and Ted. I guess we knew that was coming. A tie? Wow! Did this guy get lipstick on his face? Oh well, I'm sure he doesn't care. A win for Skyfall!

Sound of Music jokes! Christopher Plummer can only mean one thing: Anne Hathaway is about to get onstage. I love Jacki Weaver's earrings. And here comes Anne. It might be good that Amy Adams didn't win because I don't know how she's get that dress up the stairs (although I love the dress).

Not sure how I feel about Sandy Bullock's dress but I love her anyway.

I love the fullness of JLaw's dress. She looks like a princess, but nervous. Adele, thank you for sticking to black as opposed to the grandma's wallpaper dress you wore to the Grammys. Love the shoes, the hair, the makeup. But again, the damn orchestra is too loud.

Yay, Nicole Kidman isn't wearing something that matches her skin tone.

I just cannot like Kristen Stewart, going all the way back to when she played Jodie Foster's son daughter in Panic Room.

Interesting dress choice, Salma Hayek. I kind of like it.

Clooney does the In Memoriam intro. The past couple years, they've had someone sing live behind this but not this year, which I guess is good since we wouldn't be able to hear the singer anyway. Aw, Jack Klugman. Quincy was one of my faves. Oh wait, OMG it's BARBRA STREISAND with a Marvin Hamlisch tribute! And remarkably, the music isn't overwhelming her. I mean, they wouldn't dare, right?

It's the Chicago cast. Gold is definitely the color of the night. Renee Zellweger is almost unrecognizable. I want John Williams to win for Lincoln; his scores are just so "Americana" to me. But no, it goes to Life of Pi. I'm starting to get worried that Best Picture may go to a movie I didn't see.

Time for Best Original Song. WTF is Chasing Ice? And that's ScarJo singing it? She's not bad. Ooo, Norah Jones! I don't go to a ton of concerts but I've seen her twice. And AGAIN I can't HEAR her!

Where did Charlize's hair go? Regardless, she's freakin' gorgeous. Dustin Hoffman looks like he's her version of Quvenzhané's puppy purse. And speaking of little Q, how cute was she? Anyway, we're doing screenplays. Adapted goes to Argo! Now original... oh, I'd like Django to win but I also really liked Moonrise Kingdom and would like it to get some love. OK, it's Django - cool. Some people might think that his tie is wonky because it's so late in the show, but no, it was like that at the BEGINNING.

Jane Fonda - cool canary yellow dress; Michael Douglas looking old. Best Director: NOT Spielberg. It's Ang Lee. Now I am concerned.

"Will it be Emmanuelle Riva, who was 9 when this show started?" Note to hosts: if you don't tell half of your length of the show jokes, the show won't be as long.

For Best Actress - I wish I had seen The Impossible (and I will) because I think Naomi Watts might really be deserving of this. But I am a big JLaw fan so I'm cool with it. Oops, she fell! She didn't just trip, she fell. She plays it off well, but I hope her dress doesn't come down any more. [Note: in her post-win interview with GMA, Jack Nicholson came over to say hi to her and she acted totally cool, but when he left she freaked out. I heart her.]

There's Meryl Streep in this year's frumpy gown of choice.  Just because you bedazzle it doesn't make it Oscar worthy.  Please tell me she opened the envelope. I mean, we all know DDL is going to win but still. He's got lipstick on his cheek, which has become the accessory of the evening. OK, hilarious joke about playing Margaret Thatcher. Have they ever worked together? They should.

Jack Nicholson to present Best Picture. Cool. OMG, Michelle! How freakin' great. And it's ARGO! Yay! OK, I love Ben. He's so nervous and flustered and excited, but then he calms down. Great speech.

Um, this "goodbye" with Kristen Chenoweth is unnecessary.

Bottom line. For me, while a good host can make the show better, a not-as-good host doesn't detract from the show. Hell, even when James Franco blankly stared his way through a couple years ago, I still enjoyed the show. MacFarlane had some good moments, and who knew he could sing and dance? He also had some not great moments and I'll just leave it at that. I really loved that they did so much with music but obviously I had an issue with the balance of orchestra vs. singer. Still, JHud, Babs, Shirley Bassey? Wow. Way cool.

And with that, I'm off to bed.

The Gila

And the Oscar goes to...

Let me be clear: I know that it's nuts to judge movies and actors and directors and to try to determine that one is better than another when they're all so different. But I love the Oscars. I have no interest in going to an Oscar party, or hosting an Oscar party. I watch them at home and I'm very serious about it. Every year I make an effort to see all of the Best Picture nominees, although the last time I managed that was for the 2007 awards (presented in 2008) when No Country for Old Men won, and really the only reason I got them all in was because I went to AMC Theatres Best Picture Showcase, in which they showed all the nominated films in one day. Now that there can be up to 10 nominated films, they still do the showcase but  it's split over two Saturdays and in the immortal words of Sweet Brown, "ain't nobody got time for that."

Two years ago, I made a valiant effort and saw eight of the ten films. This year I saw seven of the nine nominees. Aaron plays along and tries to see most of them with me, but he's also usually asleep well before the Best Picture is announced, so he's clearly not as devoted as I am.

Amour - I didn't see this one. I just know it's heartbreaking and I'm sure it's wonderfully done. I'll probably watch it someday, but I promise that Aaron never will. He won't see any movie that's "scary or sad."

Argo - I thought this movie was brilliant. It balanced levity and intensity. It had me on the edge of my seat and had me questioning whether or not they'd get out, even though I had just read an interview with the real dude played by Ben Affleck. To me, that's film making. And yes, I'm bitter that Ben didn't get a nomination.

Beasts of the Southern Wild - My God, was this movie depressing. But Quvenzhané Wallis was fierce and while she won't win for Best Actress, she deserves the nomination.

Django Unchained - I do enjoy Quentin Tarantino movies and this was no exception. In fact, it's probably my #2 fave of his after Pulp Fiction. There were definitely some disturbing scenes to watch, and it was probably longer than it needed to be, but Aaron and I both really liked it. Christoph Waltz was outstanding, and I think Jamie Foxx should have gotten a nomination. Hell, Joaquin Phoenix doesn't care about awards anyway so just boot him out (but I admit I haven't seen The Master so I can't really comment on his performance).

Les Misérables - A lot has been made of the fact that the actors sang live and it really did make all the difference. I thought the movie was well done and I didn't think I'd cry at the end but I did. There were some powerful scenes, but I also felt like some of it didn't translate well from stage to screen, particularly transitions between scenes. Still, it's worthy of its nomination. And I know some people don't agree with this but Helena Bonham Carter and Sacha Baron Cohen were perfect as the Thénardiers.

Life of Pi - Didn't see it. Really don't have a desire to see it. Sorry I'm not sorry about that.

Lincoln - Um, Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field? Yes, please. Of course it's genius. After much deliberation, Aaron decided this was his favorite (with Django a close second).

Silver Linings Playbook - This is "a movie." It's not a spectacle, it's not based on a true story, but it's an actor's movie. And the acting was stellar. Bradley Cooper (who, by the way, still has time to fly me out there to be his date) proved he's for real and not just a pretty face. Jacki Weaver and Robert DeNiro showed the ranges of emotion as parents dealing with their son's mental illness. And Jennifer Lawrence made me like what could have been an unlikable character.

Zero Dark Thirty - Kathryn Bigelow was robbed almost as badly as Ben Affleck. I liked this movie, but was thrown off by Andy Dwyer Chris Pratt as the head of the team that got bin Laden. I thought Jessica Chastain was fantastic, but I hated the last scene of the movie. I love that Coach Taylor Kyle Chandler was in two nominated movies, this one and Argo. The raid scene was intense, but annoyingly dark.

I think Lincoln is deserving of the win, but I'm rooting for Argo. 

In the other major races, I'm going with:

• Steven Spielberg for director
• Daniel Day-Lewis for lead actor (duh)
• Jennifer Lawrence for lead actress (although I wish I had seen The Impossible because I'm thinking Naomi Watts was amazing)
• Christoph Waltz for supporting actor (this is a tough category but I'm picking Waltz to give some love to Django)
• Anne Hathaway for supporting actress (she really was devastating as Fantine)

So I'm not going out on a limb at all, but trying to spread the wealth.

I'm hopeful that Seth MacFarlane doesn't bomb as host. It's a tough gig, to be sure, and I'm a huge Billy Crystal-as-Oscar-host fan so I tend to compare all other hosts to him.

Check back Monday for my in-the-moment thoughts on the show.

Stay Tuned,

The Gila